Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tyson Pedro
Saparbeg Safarov
67%
33%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
10-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pedro: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Safarov: 8 sig / 2 TD
Tyson Pedro
Saparbeg Safarov
37
Sig strikes landed
18
74
Sig strikes attempted
46
55
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tyson Pedro
10-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Saparbeg Safarov
9-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—