Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Curtis Blaydes
9%
91%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
44
Age
Δ 17y
27
14-14-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hunt: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 56 sig / 10 TD
Mark Hunt
Curtis Blaydes
29
Sig strikes landed
58
61
Sig strikes attempted
103
35
Total strikes landed
105
0.4
Takedowns landed
7.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
8.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
50s
Control time
294s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
15 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W3
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—