Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rob Wilkinson
Israel Adesanya
38%
62%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Wilkinson: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Adesanya: 52 sig / 0 TD
Rob Wilkinson
Israel Adesanya
24
Sig strikes landed
35
48
Sig strikes attempted
63
40
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rob Wilkinson
"Razor"
11-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
29