Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Damien Brown
Dong Hyun Ma
47%
53%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
17-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-11-3
L2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brown: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Ma: 67 sig / 0 TD
Damien Brown
Dong Hyun Ma
41
Sig strikes landed
47
97
Sig strikes attempted
104
51
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Damien Brown
"Beatdown"
17-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2
Dong Hyun Ma
"Maestro"
17-11-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—