Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Mizuto Hirota
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
33
Age
Δ 3y
37
20-17
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-11-2
L4
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pearson: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Hirota: 77 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Mizuto Hirota
58
Sig strikes landed
56
142
Sig strikes attempted
135
68
Total strikes landed
78
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
20-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
21 fights · 9-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L1
Mizuto Hirota
"Pugnus"
18-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 1-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—