Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Ben Nguyen
65%
35%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
24-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Formiga: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Nguyen: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Ben Nguyen
27
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
72
41
Total strikes landed
39
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
175s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
W2
Ben Nguyen
"Ten"
17-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—