Prelims1
Welterweight
Sergio Moraes vs Tim Means
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Tim Means
34%
66%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
33-18-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraes: 87 sig / 0 TD ·
Means: 129 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Tim Means
36
Sig strikes landed
49
86
Sig strikes attempted
106
43
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—