Main
Middleweight
Thiago Santos vs Anthony Smith
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Anthony Smith
39%
61%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
34
Age
Δ 5y
30
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
39-22
W3
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Santos: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 10 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Santos
Anthony Smith
35
Sig strikes landed
41
75
Sig strikes attempted
86
45
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
80s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
W3
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—