Prelims1
Lightweight
Alan Patrick vs Damir Hadzovic
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Patrick
Damir Hadzovic
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
32
16-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-8
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Patrick: 28 sig / 9 TD ·
Hadzovic: 20 sig / 0 TD
Alan Patrick
Damir Hadzovic
23
Sig strikes landed
18
52
Sig strikes attempted
51
46
Total strikes landed
34
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
306s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
16-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Damir Hadzovic
"The Bosnian Bomber"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—