Prelims1
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara vs Joe Soto
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Joe Soto
78%
22%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
35-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-8
L2
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alcantara: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Soto: 1 sig / 0 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Joe Soto
37
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
76
48
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
L1
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
18-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—