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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Maia Stevenson vs Polyana Viana

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders ·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Maia Stevenson
Polyana Viana
32% 68%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Stevenson: 6 sig / 1 TD · Viana: 12 sig / 1 TD
Maia Stevenson
Polyana Viana
37
Sig strikes landed
41
75
Sig strikes attempted
90
63
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Maia Stevenson

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner

Polyana Viana

"Dama de Ferro"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26