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Main Heavyweight

Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders ·Arena Guilherme Paraense (Mangueirinho)
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Timothy Johnson
Marcelo Golm
58% 42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
12-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
7-3
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 77 sig / 0 TD · Golm: 59 sig / 0 TD
Timothy Johnson
Marcelo Golm
31
Sig strikes landed
33
59
Sig strikes attempted
60
77
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Timothy Johnson

12-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
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W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
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L UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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L UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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Blue corner
W1

Marcelo Golm

7-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
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