Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
King Green
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
16-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
35-17-2
L1
Current streak
D1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Koch: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Green: 110 sig / 1 TD
Erik Koch
King Green
36
Sig strikes landed
39
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
46
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
D1
King Green
35-17-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—