Back to UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mara Romero Borella

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 ·Spectrum Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Mara Romero Borella
74% 26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
19-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
13-9
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerminara: 68 sig / 0 TD · Romero Borella: 79 sig / 1 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Mara Romero Borella
40
Sig strikes landed
39
119
Sig strikes attempted
100
63
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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Blue corner
W1

Mara Romero Borella

13-9 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
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