Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Bessette
Enrique Barzola
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bessette: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Barzola: 55 sig / 5 TD
Matt Bessette
Enrique Barzola
39
Sig strikes landed
47
97
Sig strikes attempted
105
56
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
71s
Control time
262s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Bessette
"The Mangler"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
W2
Enrique Barzola
"El Fuerte"
18-5-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—