Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dan Ige
Julio Arce
47%
53%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ige: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Arce: 72 sig / 0 TD
Dan Ige
Julio Arce
37
Sig strikes landed
37
81
Sig strikes attempted
79
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dan Ige
"100K"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Julio Arce
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28