Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Gleison Tibau
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
29-1
Career record
Δ 28 pp
33-15
W2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Makhachev: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Tibau: 2 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Gleison Tibau
30
Sig strikes landed
6
62
Sig strikes attempted
32
50
Total strikes landed
22
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
244s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L2
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—