Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Alexandre Pantoja
20%
80%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
20-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
31-6
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ortiz: 36 sig / 7 TD ·
Pantoja: 19 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Alexandre Pantoja
46
Sig strikes landed
52
117
Sig strikes attempted
107
64
Total strikes landed
80
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
7.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—