Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Rob Font
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 4y
31
22-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Almeida: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Font: 41 sig / 1 TD
Thomas Almeida
Rob Font
53
Sig strikes landed
43
105
Sig strikes attempted
104
62
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L1
Rob Font
22-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—