Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Kyle Bochniak
Brandon Davis
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bochniak: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Davis: 38 sig / 1 TD
Kyle Bochniak
Brandon Davis
33
Sig strikes landed
45
80
Sig strikes attempted
97
42
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kyle Bochniak
"Killer B"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
Blue corner
Brandon Davis
"Killer B"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28