Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Shane Burgos
47%
53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
24-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kattar: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Burgos: 89 sig / 0 TD
Calvin Kattar
Shane Burgos
62
Sig strikes landed
63
165
Sig strikes attempted
181
63
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
34s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Calvin Kattar
24-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—