Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Emil Meek
84%
16%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
29
22-4
Career record
Δ 22 pp
10-5-1
W6
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 50 sig / 8 TD ·
Meek: 30 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Emil Meek
60
Sig strikes landed
39
129
Sig strikes attempted
173
89
Total strikes landed
61
5.1
Takedowns landed
2.2
10.4
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
468s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Emil Meek
"Valhalla"
10-5-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—