Main
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
·Enterprise Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Michael Johnson
82%
18%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
30-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
25-21
W5
Current streak
L2
17
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Elkins: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Johnson: 45 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Michael Johnson
49
Sig strikes landed
49
121
Sig strikes attempted
106
74
Total strikes landed
54
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
7.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
211s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
Blue corner
L2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—