Back to UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
Prelims1 Lightweight

Matt Frevola vs Marco Polo Reyes

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Marco Polo Reyes
74% 26%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 6y
33
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Frevola: 9 sig / 0 TD · Reyes: 18 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Marco Polo Reyes
41
Sig strikes landed
45
102
Sig strikes attempted
106
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Matt Frevola

"The SteamRolla"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1

Marco Polo Reyes

8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
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