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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Talita Bernardo vs Irene Aldana

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Talita Bernardo
Irene Aldana
44% 56%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
6-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bernardo: 46 sig / 1 TD · Aldana: 70 sig / 1 TD
Talita Bernardo
Irene Aldana
52
Sig strikes landed
62
133
Sig strikes attempted
131
95
Total strikes landed
106
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
14.6
Takedowns attempted
0.5
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
283s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Talita Bernardo

6-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
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Blue corner
L2

Irene Aldana

15-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
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