Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Main Bantamweight

Marlon Moraes vs Aljamain Sterling

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega ·Save Mart Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Aljamain Sterling
28% 72%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
28
24-10-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
27-5
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moraes: 7 sig / 0 TD · Sterling: 3 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Moraes
Aljamain Sterling
36
Sig strikes landed
61
106
Sig strikes attempted
127
55
Total strikes landed
84
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
7.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
246s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Marlon Moraes

"Magic"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
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L UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
Blue corner
W2

Aljamain Sterling

"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—