Main
Lightweight
Scott Holtzman vs Darrell Horcher
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Darrell Horcher
57%
43%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
15-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-4
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holtzman: 49 sig / 7 TD ·
Horcher: 36 sig / 1 TD
Scott Holtzman
Darrell Horcher
37
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
74
67
Total strikes landed
52
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.3
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
232s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Darrell Horcher
"The Saint"
14-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—