Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Alexis Davis vs Liz Carmouche
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alexis Davis
Liz Carmouche
66%
34%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-7
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Davis: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Carmouche: 49 sig / 4 TD
Alexis Davis
Liz Carmouche
36
Sig strikes landed
34
90
Sig strikes attempted
78
75
Total strikes landed
70
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
195s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexis Davis
22-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W2
Liz Carmouche
"Girlrilla"
14-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—