Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Edson Barboza
93%
7%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
30-0
Career record
Δ 36 pp
25-14
W8
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 89 sig / 4 TD ·
Barboza: 25 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Edson Barboza
65
Sig strikes landed
35
127
Sig strikes attempted
108
124
Total strikes landed
48
3.7
Takedowns landed
-0.2
9.0
Takedowns attempted
-0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
504s
Control time
-24s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—