Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Matheus Nicolau
40%
60%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 2y
25
17-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-6-1
L3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smolka: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Nicolau: 87 sig / 3 TD
Louis Smolka
Matheus Nicolau
44
Sig strikes landed
44
104
Sig strikes attempted
96
62
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
105s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Matheus Nicolau
20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—