Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Omari Akhmedov
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
20-10-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
22-6-1
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Vettori: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Akhmedov: 51 sig / 0 TD
Marvin Vettori
Omari Akhmedov
36
Sig strikes landed
31
85
Sig strikes attempted
84
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
102s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—