Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Mark De La Rosa
48%
52%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
31
Age
Δ 8y
23
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Elliott: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
De La Rosa: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tim Elliott
Mark De La Rosa
44
Sig strikes landed
41
89
Sig strikes attempted
90
64
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
188s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
Mark De La Rosa
"Bumblebee"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23