Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cynthia Calvillo
Carla Esparza
37%
63%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
10-6-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Calvillo: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Esparza: 48 sig / 2 TD
Cynthia Calvillo
Carla Esparza
37
Sig strikes landed
38
100
Sig strikes attempted
93
65
Total strikes landed
67
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Cynthia Calvillo
10-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—