Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Neil Magny
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
31-16
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Condit: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Magny: 32 sig / 6 TD
Carlos Condit
Neil Magny
60
Sig strikes landed
71
142
Sig strikes attempted
150
84
Total strikes landed
79
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—