Main
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
68%
32%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 2"
62"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
16-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-14
W2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 95 sig / 1 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 56 sig / 2 TD
Tecia Pennington
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
44
Sig strikes landed
40
84
Sig strikes attempted
89
69
Total strikes landed
65
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
239s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
Blue corner
L1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—