Prelims1
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Paul Felder
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Paul Felder
89%
11%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
38-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-6
W1
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 6 sig / 2 TD ·
Felder: 31 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Paul Felder
30
Sig strikes landed
37
65
Sig strikes attempted
69
42
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
18 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—