Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Eddie Alvarez
Justin Gaethje
46%
54%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
29-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
28-5
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Alvarez: 155 sig / 1 TD ·
Gaethje: 122 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Alvarez
Justin Gaethje
75
Sig strikes landed
60
148
Sig strikes attempted
102
76
Total strikes landed
80
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eddie Alvarez
29-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—