Prelims1
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira vs Yancy Medeiros
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Yancy Medeiros
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-8
W4
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Oliveira: 93 sig / 2 TD ·
Medeiros: 75 sig / 1 TD
Alex Oliveira
Yancy Medeiros
38
Sig strikes landed
21
77
Sig strikes attempted
59
55
Total strikes landed
35
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
172s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
Blue corner
W2
Yancy Medeiros
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—