Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Henry Cejudo
Sergio Pettis
39%
61%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
31
Age
Δ 6y
24
17-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-5
W1
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cejudo: 36 sig / 3 TD ·
Pettis: 25 sig / 0 TD
Henry Cejudo
Sergio Pettis
52
Sig strikes landed
68
132
Sig strikes attempted
168
68
Total strikes landed
92
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
Blue corner
W4
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—