Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Francis Ngannou
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Francis Ngannou
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
83"
38
Age
Δ 6y
31
48-19
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-3
W2
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Ngannou: 6 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Francis Ngannou
27
Sig strikes landed
23
50
Sig strikes attempted
51
38
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
89s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W5
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—