🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Jose Aldo
61%
39%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
28-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
32-11
W8
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Holloway: 174 sig / 0 TD ·
Aldo: 87 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Jose Aldo
133
Sig strikes landed
72
269
Sig strikes attempted
172
131
Total strikes landed
83
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
51s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—