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Main Women's Flyweight

Barb Honchak vs Lauren Murphy

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale ·Park Theatre
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Barb Honchak
Lauren Murphy
44% 56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Honchak: 71 sig / 0 TD · Murphy: 59 sig / 2 TD
Barb Honchak
Lauren Murphy
48
Sig strikes landed
53
99
Sig strikes attempted
120
75
Total strikes landed
86
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
275s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Barb Honchak

"Little Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
Blue corner
L1

Lauren Murphy

"Lucky"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
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L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
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L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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