Main
Middleweight
Eric Spicely vs Gerald Meerschaert
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
·Park Theatre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eric Spicely
Gerald Meerschaert
33%
67%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
12-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
37-23
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Spicely: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Meerschaert: 36 sig / 0 TD
Eric Spicely
Gerald Meerschaert
13
Sig strikes landed
22
30
Sig strikes attempted
41
24
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
59%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—