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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Ariel Beck vs Shana Dobson

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale ·Park Theatre
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ariel Beck
Shana Dobson
56% 44%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Beck: 35 sig / 0 TD · Dobson: 34 sig / 0 TD
Ariel Beck
Shana Dobson
31
Sig strikes landed
32
68
Sig strikes attempted
70
57
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ariel Beck

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner

Shana Dobson

"Danger"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29