Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Karine Gevorgyan vs Rachael Ostovich
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
·Park Theatre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karine Gevorgyan
Rachael Ostovich
79%
21%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
62"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gevorgyan: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Ostovich: 3 sig / 1 TD
Karine Gevorgyan
Rachael Ostovich
40
Sig strikes landed
34
94
Sig strikes attempted
89
67
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Karine Gevorgyan
"The Princess"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Age
29
Blue corner
Rachael Ostovich
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27