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Prelims1 Middleweight

Andrew Sanchez vs Ryan Janes

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrew Sanchez
Ryan Janes
67% 33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 7y
36
13-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
10-4
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Sanchez: 96 sig / 3 TD · Janes: 159 sig / 0 TD
Andrew Sanchez
Ryan Janes
62
Sig strikes landed
52
139
Sig strikes attempted
125
91
Total strikes landed
73
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
240s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Andrew Sanchez

"El Dirte"
13-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
Blue corner
L2

Ryan Janes

10-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…