Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Christina Marks vs Montana De La Rosa
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
·Park Theatre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Christina Marks
Montana De La Rosa
31%
69%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
32
Age
Δ 9y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Marks: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
De La Rosa: 6 sig / 0 TD
Christina Marks
Montana De La Rosa
37
Sig strikes landed
43
80
Sig strikes attempted
91
64
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Christina Marks
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Montana De La Rosa
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23