Main
Bantamweight
Joe Soto vs Brett Johns
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
·Park Theatre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Soto
Brett Johns
29%
71%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
19-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-2
W3
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Soto: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Johns: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joe Soto
Brett Johns
30
Sig strikes landed
43
76
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
60
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
19-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W2
Brett Johns
"The Pikey"
18-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—