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Prelims1 Lightweight

John Makdessi vs Abel Trujillo

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos ·Canada Life Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Abel Trujillo
62% 38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
18-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makdessi: 47 sig / 0 TD · Trujillo: 29 sig / 1 TD
John Makdessi
Abel Trujillo
50
Sig strikes landed
39
95
Sig strikes attempted
88
66
Total strikes landed
45
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

John Makdessi

"The Bull"
18-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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W UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
Blue corner
L1

Abel Trujillo

"Killa"
15-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
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W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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L UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—