Back to UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Prelims1 Middleweight

Julian Marquez vs Darren Stewart

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos ·Canada Life Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Julian Marquez
Darren Stewart
52% 48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Marquez: 32 sig / 0 TD · Stewart: 33 sig / 4 TD
Julian Marquez
Darren Stewart
35
Sig strikes landed
25
62
Sig strikes attempted
60
51
Total strikes landed
37
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Julian Marquez

"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L2

Darren Stewart

"The Dentist"
12-9 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
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